Why Federer & Zverev’s controversial Carlos Alcaraz & Jannik Sinner theory doesn’t make sense

Roger Federer and Alexander Zverev have sparked debate by expressing a controversial theory they share — involving Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner — about tennis court speed.

Tennis icon Federer claimed that tournament directors are preparing slower surfaces to favour both Alcaraz and Sinner as they want to see the leading duo meet in finals.

“I understand the safety net that the tournament directors see in making the surface slower,” the 20-time Grand Slam champion said on the Served with Andy Roddick podcast during the Laver Cup.

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“It’s for the weaker player — he has to hit extra amazing shots to beat Sinner, whereas if it’s quick, he can only maybe blast a few and, at the right time… and he gets past.

“So that’s what the tournament directors are [thinking], like: ‘I kind of like Sinner-Alcaraz in the finals, you know? It kind of works for the game’.”

The Swiss added: “We need to have not only fast courts, but what we would want to see is Alcaraz or Sinner figure it out on lightning fast, and then have the same match on super slow and see how that matches up.”

Zverev, the current world No 3, criticised the lack of variety in playing surfaces and echoed Federer’s suggestion that this is an intentional strategy that gives Alcaraz and Sinner an advantage.

“I hate when it’s the same, to be honest,” the German said during the Shanghai Masters.

“I think the tournament directors are going towards that direction because, obviously, they want Jannik and Carlos to do well every tournament and that’s what they prefer.

“Nowadays, you can play almost the same way on every surface. I don’t like it, I’m not a fan of it. I think tennis needs different game styles, tennis needs a little bit of variety and I think we’re lacking that right now.”

Federer and Zverev’s points about the homogenisation of court speeds and conditions are certainly valid. Some tennis analysts and fans have long questioned the lack of court diversity in the modern game.

There are now far fewer courts at the extreme ends of the speed spectrum than there were in the 1990s or in earlier eras, when there were much quicker grass and indoor courts (hard and carpet), and also slower clay courts.

The argument that courts are being made slow to benefit Alcaraz and Sinner, however, makes far less sense.

Sinner was asked directly about Federer and Zverev’s comments after his first match at the Shanghai Masters.

“You know, me and Carlos, we don’t make the courts,” said the Italian.

“It’s not our decision. We try to adapt ourself in every situation. I feel like still every week is a bit different.

“I’ve played some great tennis even when it was faster courts. But I’m not making the courts, you know, so I just try to adapt and play my best tennis I can, and that’s it.”

As Sinner alluded to in his answer, he is by no means a slow-court specialist. In fact, Sinner’s record suggests he is actually at his best on quicker surfaces.

While Sinner has won titles on all four current surfaces (grass, clay, outdoor hard and indoor hard), only one of his 22 titles to date has come on clay (at 250 level in Umag in 2022), which is the slowest court surface.

The four-time major winner has secured seven titles on indoor hard courts and two on grass, which are generally the fastest surfaces.

Sinner played arguably the best tennis of his career to date to win the 2024 ATP Finals on a quick indoor hard-court in Turin. He did not lose more than four games in any of his five matches, and this dominant run emphasised how deadly he can be when his serve and baseline aggression are enhanced by quick surfaces.

Alcaraz is a different case, having won 11 of his 24 titles, and two of his six Grand Slams, on clay courts. He has also thrived on the slow hard courts of the Indian Wells Masters, where he has triumphed twice.

For all of his success in slow conditions, though, Alcaraz is remarkably complete, and he has already proven he can win on a range of courts.

At the age of 21, Alcaraz became the youngest man to win titles on all four current surfaces by securing his maiden indoor title at the Rotterdam Open in February.

The Spaniard, who has secured two Wimbledon crowns and two Queen’s Club Championship titles, also holds a staggering 35-4 record on grass. This gives him an 89.7% grass-court win rate, which is the highest any male player holds on the surface in the Open Era.

Sinner and Alcaraz are arguably just as difficult to beat on quicker courts, and whatever the surface, they are simply in a different category to the rest of the tour.